Research Finds Large Increase in Turnout with Vote-by-Mail System

With the crowded lines for advance voting making news in the 2008 presidential election, it’s evident that voters are enthusiastic about reforms that make civic participation more convenient.

In 2000, Oregon became the first state in the U.S. to hold elections exclusively by mail. According to research conducted by Georgia State political science Assistant Professor Sean Richey, Oregon’s vote-by-mail reform has led to a 10 percentage point increase in turnout for both midterm and presidential elections.

“That’s a fairly large increase,” he said. “When you think that even in the most exciting elections, such as the one we just had, turnout only increased by 8 percentage points, that’s a pretty massive effect.”

In Oregon, every registered voter is mailed a ballot, which he or she then completes and mails back or turns in at a ballot drop-off location. In addition to being convenient for voters, the move has also saved the state about $3 million per election.

“Polling places are actually quite expensive. People don’t think of the administration of elections, but it’s quite costly to hire workers and monitoring and that kind of thing,” Richey said.

“This is a much more efficient system, and what you really hear about is obviously that it improves turnout and democratic participation, but a nice sub-effect is that it’s actually inexpensive.”

Another reason voters find the vote-by-mail system attractive is the added time it gives to research the issues. In a state such as Oregon, which typically features many ballot initiatives, this is especially important to voters, Richey said.

“In the polling place, it’s difficult to give 25 questions a lot of detailed consideration,” he said. “But if you’re mailed a ballot, you can go on the Internet, you can discuss it with friends and family, you can ask knowledgeable people that you know. This allows you to have much more deliberative, reasoned choices for the questions. And that’s one of the things people find most positive.”

With Oregon’s increased voter turnout and the popularity of vote-by-mail among the state’s residents, other states could turn to a similar voting system, Richey said.

“If a neighboring state has tried an innovative new reform and they try it for 10 or 15 years and it is successful, it’s much easier for you to adopt it,” he said.

“Oregon has about 2 million voters and they’ve done three presidential elections, two midterm elections and all the sub and county elections in between by this vote-by-mail system, so there’s lots of data on it. There’s very little fraud, there’s been no reports of abuse of the system, and so it makes it much easier for a state like Washington or even Colorado, two of the states considering it, to choose it.”

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Amendment Vote Linked to Georgia Environment

Georgia voters will make an important decision regarding forest land and the environment on Tuesday, November 4. Georgians will cast ballots on Amendment #1, the “Georgia Forest Land Protection Act of 2008,” which asks voters whether the state Constitution should be amended to allow timberland taxation on the basis of its actual value as a forest, rather than its potential or speculative future use.

“As land values have increased, property taxes have risen to the point where many landowners are forced to decide whether it makes economic sense to keep their land in forests or sell it for development,” explained Lauren Bush, Public Affairs Staff Forester with the Georgia Forestry Commission. “Amendment #1 encourages landowners to keep their land in forests rather than sell it to developers.”

Georgia boasts approximately 24 million acres of forest land, 92% of which is privately owned. The forest industry contributes $28.5 billion to our state’s economy, and provides invaluable nature services to Georgia, including clean water, clean air, wildlife habitat and recreation opportunities. The Georgia Forestry Commission provides leadership, service, and education in the protection and conservation of the state’s forest resources.

“Forest management is a long-term commitment for landowners,” said Bush. “They may not receive a return on their investment for 20 or more years, but their property taxes are due every year. Amendment #1 can help encourage property owners to keep their land in forests, which enhance the life of every Georgian.”

To receive the forest value assessment, Amendment #1 requires forest land owners to leave their land in tree production for at least 15 years. If a county’s total tax digest of revenue is reduced by more than three percent, the money will be reimbursed by the State of Georgia. If it is affected by three percent or less, the county will be reimbursed 50%.

If ratified by Georgia voters on the November 4 General Election ballot, the Forest Land Protection Act will go into effect on January 1, 2009.

For more information, visit GaTrees.org, www.forourforests.com or www.keepgeorgiagreen.org.

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Justice Department, U.S. Attorney's Office Announce Contacts to Handle Election-Related Complaints

United States Attorney David E. Nahmias announced today that William R. Toliver, an Assistant United States Attorney (AUSA) in Atlanta, will lead the efforts of his Office in connection with the Justice Department's nationwide Election Day Program for the upcoming November 4, 2008 general elections. AUSA Toliver has been appointed to serve as the District Election Officer for the Northern District of Georgia, and in that capacity is responsible for overseeing the District's handling of complaints of election fraud and voting rights abuses in consultation with Justice Department Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

United States Attorney Nahmias said, "We are committed to assuring an honest and fair election, and to assuring that every lawful vote is counted. Election fraud and voting rights abuses dilute and preclude honest votes. They strike at the very heart of our rights as citizens and corrupt the essence of our representative form of government. As such, we will address credible reports of election fraud and voting rights violations promptly and aggressively. Anyone who has information suggesting electoral corruption or voting rights abuses should make that information available immediately to the FBI, my Office, or the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division."

On October 8, 2002, Attorney General John Ashcroft established a Department-wide Ballot Access and Voting Integrity Initiative. The goals of this Initiative are to increase the Department's ability to deter voter intimidation, suppression, discrimination and election fraud and to prosecute these offenses whenever and wherever they occur--to make voting easier and cheating harder. Both goals are equally important. It is imperative that in pursuing voter integrity, ballot access is not in any way diminished or harmed. The Department's long-standing Election Day Program furthers the goals of the Initiative. The Program also is intended to ensure public confidence in the integrity of the election process by providing local points of contact within the Department where the public can report possible election fraud and voting rights violations while the polls are open on election day. The franchise is the cornerstone of American democracy. We all must ensure that those who are entitled to the franchise exercise it, while those who seek to corrupt it are brought to justice.

In order to respond to complaints of election fraud or voting rights abuses on November 4, 2008, and to ensure that such complaints are directed to the appropriate authorities, U.S. Attorney Nahmias stated that AUSA Toliver will be on duty while the polls are open. He can be reached by the public at the following telephone number: 404-581-6000.

The FBI will also have Special Agents available in the Atlanta Field Office and each resident agency in this District to receive allegations of election fraud, intimidation, suppression and other election abuses. The FBI can be reached by the public at 404-679-9000.

Complaints about ballot access problems or discrimination can also be made directly to the Civil Rights Division's Voting Section in Washington at 1-800-253-3931 or 202-307-2767. Where voter intimidation or suppression tactics target voters on the basis of race, color, religion, or national origin, the Civil Rights Division's Criminal Section may be contacted at 202-514-3204.

For further information please contact David E. Nahmias (pronounced NAH-me-us), United States Attorney, or Charysse L. Alexander, Executive Assistant United States Attorney, through Patrick Crosby, Public Affairs Officer, U.S. Attorney's Office, at (404) 581-6016. The Internet address for the HomePage for the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Northern District of Georgia is www.usdoj.gov/usao/gan.

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Secretary of State Handel Applauds Denial of Georgia Democratic Party’s Motion to Block Use of Photo ID

Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel issued the following statement today regarding Fulton County Superior Court Judge Tom Campbell’s denial of the Georgia Democratic Party’s motion for a Temporary Restraining Order to block the use of photo identification in the July 15, 2008 General Primary:

“I applaud Judge Campbell’s ruling to deny the Democratic Party’s frivolous motion to block the use of photo ID in the General Primary Election. Photo ID has been implemented without incident in eight elections, including the Presidential Preference Primary that featured record voter turnout.

“In the past year, the Georgia Supreme Court, the U.S. District Court in Rome and the U.S. Supreme Court have all rejected attacks on the constitutionality of the photo ID requirement. Opponents of photo ID have failed to produce even one voter who has been harmed by the requirement, despite years of scouring the state in search of such an individual.

“I remind voters that Georgia’s photo ID law remains in place. As required by the law, Georgia voters casting their ballots in-person on Election Day must bring one of the required six forms of photo ID to the polls on July 15.”

Secretary of State Handel Reminds Voters to Bring Photo ID When Voting in the General Primary Election

Secretary of State Karen Handel today reminded voters to bring photo identification when participating in the July 15, 2008 statewide General Primary Election.

Voters will be required to show one of the following six forms of photo ID when voting in-person on Election Day:

A Georgia driver’s license, even if expired;
Any valid state or federal government issued photo ID, including a free Voter ID Card issued by your county registrar or Georgia Department of Driver Services (DDS);
Valid U.S. passport;
Valid employee photo ID from any branch, department, agency, or entity of the U.S. Government, Georgia, or any county, municipality, board, authority, or other entity of this state;
Valid U.S. military photo ID; or
Valid tribal photo ID.

If a voter does not have one of these forms of photo identification, they can obtain a free voter ID card at their county registrars’ office or the Georgia Department of Driver Services. Anyone with additional questions about Georgia’s photo ID requirement can visit www.GAPhotoID.com or call toll free (877) 725-9797.

Polls will be open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. on Tuesday, July 15, 2008. Voters can find voter registration information, including polling locations and legislative districts, by visiting http://sos.georgia.gov/cgi-bin/locator.asp.

Voters can request an absentee ballot from their county registrar’s office through Friday, July 11, 2008. All absentee ballots must be received by the county registrar by Election Day, Tuesday, July 15, 2008. Photo identification is not required when voting by mail.

Secretary of State Karen Handel Reminds Voters about the Conclusion of Advance Voting and Absentee Balloting for the General Primary Election

Secretary of State Karen Handel reminded voters today about the conclusion of advance voting and absentee balloting for the Tuesday, July 15, 2008 statewide General Primary Election.

Voters will have the opportunity to advance vote in-person through the close of business on Friday, July 11, 2008. Voters will be required to show photo identification prior to in-person advance voting.

Voters can request an absentee ballot through the close of business on Friday, July 11, 2008. Absentee ballots must be returned to the county registrar by Election Day, July 15, 2008. Photo identification is not required when voting by mail.

Voters will be required to show one of the following six forms of photo ID when voting in-person during advance voting or on Election Day:

A Georgia driver’s license, even if expired;
Any valid state or federal government issued photo ID, including a free Voter ID Card issued by your county registrar or Georgia Department of Driver Services (DDS);
Valid U.S. passport;
Valid employee photo ID from any branch, department, agency, or entity of the U.S. Government, Georgia, or any county, municipality, board, authority, or other entity of this state;
Valid U.S. military photo ID; or
Valid tribal photo ID.

If a voter does not have one of these forms of photo identification, they can obtain a free voter ID card at their county registrar’s office or the Georgia Department of Driver Services. Anyone with additional questions about Georgia’s photo ID requirement can visit www.GAPhotoID.com or call toll free (877) 725-9797.

Polls will be open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. on Tuesday, July 15, 2008. Voters can find voter registration information, including polling locations and legislative districts, by visiting http://sos.georgia.gov/cgi-bin/locator.asp.

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Giuliani: Strategy Memo: Looking Good

As voting nears in the Republican nomination process, our campaign remains convinced that our strategy we have long had in place is right – bold, innovative and designed to deal with the radically different election calendar. While many of the beltway insiders seem to remain committed to the old "Carter/Clinton" approach and have questioned the adjustments we have made to our strategic thinking based on the new calendar, we clearly have a winning plan to secure the nomination in an election cycle unlike any other. History will prove us right.

As we enter the final stages of the campaign we have seen a tightening in the national polling and the emergence of a real 5-way race for the Republican nomination. Mayor Giuliani has led virtually every national major media poll conducted in 2007. We are now at a point in the campaign where we are seeing increasing polling volatility as public attention turns to the horse races in individual states.

Important to our long term strategy, Mayor Giuliani has enjoyed a commanding lead in nearly every public poll conducted in the delegate rich states of Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey.

2007 November – December Public Polling Averages Mayor Giuliani and Closest Opponent in state polling
State Mayor Giuliani Average Closest Opponent Average
Florida 30% 17%
California 29% 15%
New Jersey 38% 12%
New York 40% 12%

The Primary Calendar2008 will be unlike any recent Republican nomination process. What typically has been a primary process that stretched into March or April has been accelerated and compacted into a 33 day sprint.

Our rivals seemingly have built campaigns based on the old calendars’ strategies — a couple of very early state wins to propel them deeper in to the nomination process. To the contrary, our plan allocates time and resources to the many states which vote a bit later — on January 29 (Florida) and February 5.

For the record, only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida whereas 1,039 delegates will be picked on January 29 and February 5. Additionally, it is important to note that voting HAS ALREADY STARTED in Florida, Missouri, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey and New York – tens of thousands of people will have already cast their ballot by the time you are reading this note. And more February 5th states, including California will begin early and absentee voting soon. All of this points to the folly of over-estimating the impact of the results of Iowa and New Hampshire and the wisdom of our strategy.

Putting a high priority on spending our time and money in a proportional basis in Florida and the large delegate states voting on February 5th is clearly the right thing to do.

The Early States
The pre-February 5th states are Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida and Maine. Delegates are at stake in just five states before February 5. Wyoming will select a portion of its delegates at their caucus in January, but will not allocate all of their delegates until later in the year. Iowa, Nevada and Maine award NO delegates at this time. Florida is the big prize on January 29, with 57 winner-take-all delegates – the only winner-take-all state before February 5th.

Pre February 5th Contests
Date State Estimated Delegates after RNC Penalty
1/3 Iowa 0*
1/5 Wyoming 12
1/8 New Hampshire 12
1/15 Michigan 30
1/19 Nevada 0*
1/19 South Carolina 24
1/29 Florida 57
2/1 Maine 0*

Because states selecting delegates before February 5th are in violation of Republican National Committee rules, those states have been penalized half of their normal delegates; Iowa, Nevada, and Maine do not select any delegates at their caucuses, but rather at state party conventions in late spring. The states before February 5th will allocate delegates to multiple candidates under varying state election laws and state party rules. Thus, it is highly unlikely that any single candidate will win all of any one state’s delegates except Florida’s, which will be winner-take-all.
Florida accounts for more than 40% of all delegates allocated before February 5th and has almost twice as many delegates as the next largest state. It is therefore easy and correct to conclude that in a multiple candidate race, whichever candidate wins Florida, with their winner-take-all delegates, will very likely have a delegate lead going into February 5th.

February 5th
On February 5th, 982 delegates will be in play. Most importantly, a bloc of 201 winner-take-all delegates will be at stake in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware, all states in which Mayor Giuliani has double digit leads. Aside from the huge northeast delegate prize, Missouri will award 58 winner-take-all delegates, and Senator Kit Bond’s endorsement gives our organization a great statewide network there. Also on February 5th, large states such as California, Georgia and Illinois will award most of their delegates by Congressional District vote. It is for this reason that Mayor Giuliani has spent a great deal of time in each of those states and has always polled well in them.

Path to Victory
If Mayor Giuliani wins even a minority share of the 78 delegates from pre Florida states, wins Florida’s 57 delegates, wins the 201 available in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and wins only a plurality of delegates from large February 5th states like California, Georgia and Illinois, he will have a commanding lead in delegates for the nomination with more than half of the delegates selected.

State Polling and Outlooks
As noted above, polling has been and will continue to be dynamic and incredibly volatile. In Iowa for instance -just in December- we have seen polls placing the Mayor’s support from as high as 3rd to as low as 6th place. Senator McCain caucus support has ranged from a high of 20% to a low of 5%. And polling over the Christmas and New Year holidays will not be any less fickle.

In Iowa, one could anticipate that Mayor Giuliani might finish outside of the top 3. Governors Huckabee and Romney are battling it out for first, Senator Thompson is spending a lot of time in the state over the closing days of the campaign and Senator McCain received a recent boost from the endorsement of the Des Moines Register. While placement in Iowa will be a focus of the media, it should be remembered that Senator McCain came in 5th place in Iowa (behind Bauer and Keyes) before winning New Hampshire.

The most covered story out of Iowa will likely be the Democratic race, but on the Republican side, the Huckabee/Romney race will be very interesting. The Romney campaign has invested millions of dollars and assembled a massive paid staff; some now question whether Mitt Romney’s Iowa investment and organization will prevail over Mike Huckabee. While Governor Huckabee was climbing rapidly in polls before Christmas, he now seems to have plateaued. Governor Romney’s strategy has long been based on winning the first few races to build momentum. Many believe the Romney organization (and a few million more dollars of get-out-the-vote money) will pull this one out for their campaign.

New Hampshire is only a few days after Iowa and voters there are notoriously late deciders on their presidential primary vote. New Hampshire will be very much in flux after Iowa. Governor Romney was governor of neighboring Massachusetts and Senator McCain won New Hampshire in 2000. In addition to Senator McCain’s base of support, he has recently put together a series of high profile endorsements in the area to further reinvigorate his campaign. The unprecedented personal spending by Governor Romney should not be underestimated. It is apparent that he has put more than $40 million of his own money into this race.

Accurate polling in New Hampshire will be nearly impossible, with the holidays complicating it logistically and the Iowa news cycle dominating press and potentially disrupting the order of the race.

Although we should expect to see more polling from South Carolina, Michigan and the other early states, one should remember that because of the furious pace of the election calendar and the never ending news cycle, polling will be very difficult to conduct, have a very short shelf life and become even more unstable and unreliable. The polling picture will be further blurred with the range of new polling methodologies that are being tested, ranging from robotic calling to internet polling.

Thus, we should all be ready for a barrage of state and national polls in January with seemingly contradictory results — some of it good news, much of it related to early January states as bad news. We should all have confidence in the strong organizations and also in the strong bases of support in Florida and other February 5th states which will endure the ups and downs of January.

Also, by the time we get to Florida, the field of candidates and the race will look remarkably different than it does right now. Florida will be the important battleground not only for our campaign but for the race itself.

Polling in Florida has been stable all year. For most of the second half of 2007, the support for Mayor Giuliani has averaged 33 or 34%. Virtually every other candidate in the race has polled in second place to us at one point or another over the year. We have remained on top in Florida. As in all races, expect to see signs of tightening in Florida as Election Day approaches, but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race. We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win.

One should conclude, as voting nears, that our campaign is focused on the right prize – winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination. Our national campaign is the right strategy for getting it done.